Kilzyou and the additional challenge for Capcom Cup entrants
The field is almost set
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Kilzyou is the latest Capcom Cup qualifier, winning the second France/Spain/Portugal event on Sunday. With that, the field is up to 26 entrants. Only five spots remain which will be awarded through regional events, and then there’s the Last Chance Qualifier.
I remember first watching Kilzyou in the Gfinity Elite Series, helping Fnatic reach the postseason in Season 4. A deadly Karin even then, Kilzyou was 4-2 in his six appearances in the regular season. Keep in mind that even those it’s only 6 games, each game in the Gfinity Elite Series was pressure packed because of how few games players got to make an impact.
He had reached two previous Capcom Pro Tour Top 8s before Sunday, both online events. He was 1-and-done in the 2020 Western Europe 2 qualifier. This past August, he got to Losers Semifinal before falling to eventual winner and streak-breaker Monsieur Crimson.
One difference on Sunday was starting Top 8 in Winners Semifinal. It’s been said before here how much that makes a difference in this era of double-elimination brackets. The championship conversion rate in the past three years alone is 92.1 percent among those who start Top 8 of a CPT event in Winners Semifinal.
Only two players have won an event this year when starting Top 8 in losers: Papoi and Crimson. Kilzyou was a victim of Crimson.
He didn’t have to worry about Crimson on Sunday, and he didn’t have to worry about every match being elimination.
His average round time on Sunday was 48.2 seconds. In the two events prior, his average time was 43.2 seconds. This is not just saying that slowing down by five seconds is the key. It was clear when watching the rounds that he was fighting for control against his opponents and gaining the advantage.
With his win, he became the fourth Karin to win a CPT event, joining Punk, Rob TV and Robinho.
The diversity of event winners has been noted by many including myself. But through it all, four Karins and all a threat to win the big prize gives me a moment of pause. Before Sunday, the Karin total was tied with Cammy. Remember when Cammy won three events in four weeks and people were going crazy? I do.
Anyone who goes to Capcom Cup knows that at some point, they will probably have to defeat a Karin to win the title. But with the majority of the field set, it’s time to start thinking of how the field will be divided up.
In previous years in the Street Fighter V era, aligning the qualifiers was simple because 31 were seeded in order and then the Last Chance Qualifier winner was placed in a certain spot, either 19th or 32nd.
The 2020 playoff was supposed to be group play into elimination, but even in that format, the placement was announced at the start of the regular season.
There’s no word of how the 2021 playoff will be structured, so it could be a completely random draw. It might be pre-determined and then revealed after the Last Chance Qualifier is done. It might be group play into playoffs. Or maybe it could be swiss like the CS:GO major (that would be awesome!).
My wish list in order of hoping how the Capcom Cup format will play out:
Swiss format to 8-player single-elimination bracket similar to the CS:GO major
Single elimination First-to-10 bracket (the whole postseason is going to be a week-long event!)
Group play into 8-player single elimination
Group play into 8-player double elimination
Just another double-elimination bracket like all of the other double-elimination brackets mankind has used since the birth of Rodrigo Lopez de Segura in 1530.
Point is, the 26 players we know who are going to Capcom Cup know they could face a Karin.
Imagining it’s a standard double-elimination bracket, I played around with a random number generator on my computer, assigning spots based on whether they were going to be a Karin or not in a 4-player pod. The random draw out of 185 attempts came up 85 times that I would either face a Karin in the first or second round, nearly 45 percent.
And this is with what we have at the moment. The remaining six spots could mean more of her!
How will the field be set? Does Capcom put 32 table tennis balls into a bowl and stir it, then run whatever format is to be run? Does it take into account where players are from and make sure same regions can’t meet until Winners Semifinal or Losers Semifinal at the earliest? Do they avoid potential mirror matches?
There’s a lot to consider. With the big show two months away, it’s time to start having some big discussions about it.
Luke is ready for CPT battle
Today is officially the first day Luke can be eligible for any CPT event, as the seven-day moratorium on a new character has passed.
Only two characters have yet to be used in a CPT Top 8 match this year: Oro and Blanka.
The Blanka drought is sad because it goes back to Sept. 27, 2020. No CPT Top 8 appearances this year. If we extend outside of CPT: not used in any game in the Olympics, and not used at Red Bull Kumite. It’s a sad time for the Blanka army. More about that in a future issue.
Oro’s drought is not as bad because he was released a few months ago.
Will Luke leapfrog both of them in being used this year?
Based on the commentary from players in their initial experiences with Luke, I’m leaning toward yes. Then it comes down to when he’ll be used in the remaining five events.
If he appears in the upcoming North America Midwest 2 Top 8, Luke would be the 12th character to be used in the first event eligible.
The last character to be used on the first week of eligiblity is G on Aug. 18, 2018, at CPT Online Europe East 2. Shady and Swag Skheletor both picked the character.
If Luke gets used and wins this weekend, that would be incredible. The only character to be used in the Top 8 of a CPT event in their first week of eligibility and win the event was Laura on Feb. 27, 2016, at Cannes Winter Clash. As you could probably guess, that event was the first Street Fighter V event in CPT history, so one character by default was going to take that honor.
I wrote about Luke during the reveal months ago where I talked about looking toward the future. Some players might still do that.