This is issue #15 of thegametwok newsletter, where I share Street Fighter V stats and findings.
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If we were to look at social media posts on May 16 compared to today, the thoughts on Cammy have completely changed.
Well, not really changed. More like the amount of Cammy talk today compared to May 16 is next to non-existent.
NL, using Cammy, won the CPT Online Eastern Asia 1 event on that May day by defeating Infiltration, who was trying to become the first Ed champion. A Cammy user won a CPT event for the third time in four events.
A character winning three times in four tournaments is not new. Akuma and Guile users did the same thing years ago.
May 16 seems like a distant time ago, and with the second of 4 Japan events completed on Sunday, it seemed like a good time to revisit what’s happened with Cammy.
When Cammy went on her 3-in-4 run, Gama, Mago and NL all got the job done.
So in those first four events that had Cammy, her users went 25-13 in Top 8 games, a .688 win percentage. Only M. Bison/Dictator who was 8-3 (.727) had a better win percentage at that time.
Cammy’s match value was 2.58, a fantastic score. The only other character in that 4-event timeframe who had a match value above 1.0 was Kolin, who was at 1.04. Kolin got there because Nephew won the CPT Online North America West 1 event on May 9, the only 1 of the 4 events a Cammy user did not win in her run.
When Cammy users started a round in Top 8 with more meter than their opponent, they were 16-6 in rounds, only 1 of 2 characters with more than 10 round wins. Her match value was 1.77 in those specific rounds, tops in the game.
When Cammy users started a round in Top 8 with less meter, they were 10-5, the only character in double digits. Her match value was 0.83, fairly good and again tops in the game.
Cammy was in more games and winning, a stunning development for her as I talked about in a previous issue.
The 12 events since … oh man.
Cammy users have reached 5 Top 8s. She is 21-34 in CPT Top 8 games in those 12 events. Her .381 win rate is 28th best.
Her match value is -2.79, good enough for last place among every character used. She has some company in that Ryu with a 2-14 record is only a sliver ahead at -2.65.
When Cammy users have more meter to start a round, they were 14-19 in those specific rounds with a collective -0.35 match value. It’s almost a push which compared to the first four events is not good.
But when they have less meter to start a round, they were 17-15, an 0.04 match value. I would actually take that near push considering the prospects are never good for characters who start with less meter.
Overall, these numbers post championships are not good.
The one thing I immediately thought of was that the players have all adjusted. But have these players adjusted? I would say no.
It’s great to see these splits, but we have to keep one thing in mind, the 2021 version of the Capcom Pro Tour is individual events from each region. NL, Gama and Mago are not traveling city to city, country to country competing every weekend for tour points. They are done competing in the regular season, for now.
Those three’s stats in those first four events are different than the collective that has competed since.
I revisited this page that lists the users by character and their stats as part of the research for this report. It looked good on May 16 when Mago, NL and Gama all had winning records and won CPT events. Looking at the page today, there are more Cammy users, but those three CPT winners remain the only ones with winning records.
Momi made a spirited run to the finals of CPT Online Western Europe 1 but ran out of steam against Takamura.
The average round time in CPT Top 8s is 49.6 seconds. I split the rounds into those that ended on or before 50 seconds and those after 50 seconds.
This is probably the most telling stat regarding Cammy.
First 4 CPT events
Rounds 50 seconds and shorter: 27-15 round record, 38.8 second round average, 1.58 match value
Rounds longer than 50 seconds: 22-18 round record, 64.7 second round average, 1.00 match value
12 CPT events since
Rounds 50 seconds and shorter: 39-44 round record, 37.2 second round average, -1.45 match value
Rounds longer than 50 seconds: 20-36 round record, 66.0 second round average, -1.33 match value
When a round was quick in those first four events, Cammy was dominant. In the 12 events since, she’s hanging in there, right on the line.
The rounds longer than 50 seconds are eye opening. In those first four events, Cammy was doing OK. Since then, it’s been a struggle. This is where, if Cammy players could look at this and fix this, things could be much better for the collective.
I really thought after watching the replay of the third Cammy win — and wrote as much — this was going to be a different year of Cammy. Fewer events and a filtered field of competitors seemed to be the recipe for future Cammy players to build on the early season success.
She was primed to finish with a winning record and the usage title. Instead, it’s an epic drop-off, and I’m going to be extremely wrong about my prediction.