Luke's Capcom Pro Tour impact
This is issue #10 of thegametwok newsletter, where I share Street Fighter V stats and findings.
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The announcement of Luke into Street Fighter V came with some notes that made me think about the latter part of the 2021 Capcom Pro Tour.
If you haven’t seen the trailer, it’s here:
Any time a character is announced, I think about when that character will be used in a Capcom Pro Tour Top 8 match. In a way, that’s a really tough climb for anyone to do. Of course there will be people trying out new characters the first time they are eligible. It’s really the battle of getting through a bracket until there are 8 left and then using that character.
Some players test out a character here and there in preliminaries and then maybe 1 game in a Top 8 match to see if the new factor gives them an advantage. Other times players go with a full commitment on a new character, learning the ins and outs along the way to a Top 8 placing and beyond.
We will get to see this play out later in the month when Oro and Akira both become eligible. As announced in the summer update, both characters will be available Aug. 16.
Capcom Pro Tour rules state a character does not become tournament eligible until 7 days after release which means the first tournament both characters will be eligible is CPT Online South Africa on Aug. 28.
When Oro and Akira get used intrigues me but not as much as Luke.
In the Summer Update, the executives mentioned several notes about Luke. He will be the final character in Street Fighter V in this the final season of the game.
The executives also said that he is the bridge to the next game, whatever/whenever that takes place. Therefore, everyone should note everything about him so that they can get an idea of what’s to come in the next game.
It is that right there which grabbed my attention. Because he’ll be available in early November, this means he will be eligible during the 2021 Capcom Pro Tour season unless the tournament executives say otherwise.
‘Early November’ can be interpreted in many ways. I would think it to be within the first two weeks. If that’s the case, then Luke will be eligible in either 8 or 9 CPT events.
Released prior to Nov. 13, then Luke becomes eligible on Nov. 20 during CPT Online Brazil 2 and there would be 9 events. If not at that timeframe then it will be CPT Online Eastern Asia 2 with Luke eligible for 8 events, a quarter of the season.
This is the schedule at the moment:
11/20/2021: Brazil 2
11/27/2021: Eastern Asia 2
12/4/2021: France/Spain/Portugal 2
12/11/2021: North America Midwest 2
12/18/2021: United Kingdom and Ireland 2
1/8/2022: Central America East 2
1/15/2022: North America East 2
1/22/2022: Japan 4
Pending: The 32nd event
Looking at that list of events and the potential players to make it to a Top 8, I’m hoping someone will take a chance on using Luke.
Whether that happens remains to be seen, because predictions can evaporate fast.
I took a look at when characters were first used in a CPT Top 8 regular season match compared to the date when they were eligible (oh and since I’m about to get into the stats here, I’m not counting Eleven, who is ineligible).
Most of the original 16 that came with the game were used fairly early in a Top 8, within the first five events played.
Two characters had a lengthy wait. Rashid didn’t get in until June 6, 2016 at The Fight, the 20th event he was eligible. Looking back at that, it’s unreal he had to wait that long given what we know now about the character.
Zangief didn’t get used in a CPT Top 8 until July 10, 2016, at G League, a premier event, the 24th event he was eligible. Thank you, Itabashi Zangief.
Then came the extra content and the additional characters all the way until today, where we’re only a few days away from Akira and Oro joining the staff.
Seven characters had to wait until their 10th event or later before being used. Cody, released on June 25, 2018, didn’t make it until his 64th event, when Evil Yoshi took a chance on him at CPT Online Middle East. To date, that’s the longest drought. It still took about 4 more months before Cody won a game in a CPT Top 8 match. The play index has Uriel Verlorio being the one to break the seal.
That brings me to this sad Cody tweet from almost 3 years ago
Luke won’t have to wait 64 events before he makes it in, that’s almost a guarantee.
I’ve made note of what ended up being a 5-year Ryu drought, repeatedly talking about how long we had to wait between the last time he was used in a Top 8 match. But at least he was used in a match! It took a year and change for Cody to get used. Gill was shut out of the 2020 CPT regular season but at least has made several appearances in 2021.
In all, 13 characters were used in the first event eligible. Seven other characters were used in the second event.
Where should Luke end up on this plane? Does he go the way of the original 16 and get used right away, or does he end up waiting like Cody, Gill and Zangief?
I’ll answer the previous questions, but there’s another part of this I want to point out first, which is character usage.
Every year I’ve tracked CPT Top 8 stats, I’ve talked about the Top 8 usage championship, the mythical title awarded to a character that gets used in the most CPT Top 8 games. Right now, here’s the top 5
Urien 116 (58-54 record, 4 mirror games)
Cammy 77 (38-36 record, 3 mirror games)
Rashid 60 (32-28 record)
Dhalsim 54 (33-21 record)
Karin 50 (29-21 record)
With the exception of Dhalsim, this list of the top five is expected, the other four characters should be at the top of the list as has been the case each of the previous pro tour years given their strengths and history of usage by the players.
It’s never happened where a new character comes in midseason and makes a charge to the top of the usage standings. As an example, G was eligible on Aug. 6, 2018, but made it to 8 CPT Top 8s and finished a paltry 11-19. People were still trying to figure him out as they have with every character.
So with 8 or 9 events where he’s eligible, there’s no way Luke will sniff the top of the CPT usage standings this year, correct?
There’s the dream scenario of Luke being in every CPT Top 8 match of the 8 or 9 events he’s eligible, that would make it almost 500 games and that definitely would make him the 2021 usage champion.
It’s a big commitment to make a weapon or character change in any esports title. The stakes are high in the Capcom Pro Tour, only winners (with some exceptions) make it to the postseason. Playing one character and switching to something new is a massive risk. Even switching characters mid match is not a good play, the numbers say don’t do it.
Luke makes the case of being the exception.
When a new character comes out, everyone tries it either to see whether it’s a fit or for knowledge of what to do against it.
I go back to what the executives said, that Luke is the bridge from Street Fighter V to the next game, and that we all should pay attention to what he does in the game because it’s very likely a precursor to what’s to come.
If that’s the case, then by playing the character and understanding it, not only do players get a deep understanding of Luke now, they gain information on what to do in the next game. They get that head start on the next game now instead of when it’s released. We saw it when Street Fighter IV was released, that anyone who had early continuous access had a massive advantage on the field early on.
It’s the case in most esports titles; when the game itself or a new character is released, there’s a race to learn as much as possible to gain that advantage.
The risk of using Luke now is learning a character from ground 0, losing tournament matches to character veterans and not qualifying for Capcom Cup but filling the library of knowledge ahead of the next game where that information carries over.
If players decide that the next game matters more, then Luke will contend for a Top 10 spot in the usage standings, maybe Top 5. If it’s about winning right now and Luke can’t do it, then Luke won’t make a Top 8 the rest of the way.
How it will go come November will be up to the pros.