This is issue #3 of thegametwok newsletter, where I share Street Fighter V stats and findings.
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I’ve been fascinated about which character ends up winning the Top 8 usage title - the mythical award given to the character that is used in the most Capcom Pro Tour Top 8 regular season games.
Usually the character that wins the title isn’t the best character or doesn’t even make it deep into Capcom Cup. But the usage is notable because it’s who we viewers see the most. It’s confirmation bias - the character is seen a lot, therefore it’s good.
Cammy won the usage title in 2018 and nearly lapped the field … with her losses! The next year she fell off a cliff. Then came the pandemic-altering 2020 season and she won again.
Guess who’s leading as of this email?
OK, here’s how Cammy has done every year since 2017:
2017: 451 games (Rank: 3), 206-245
2018: 777 games (Rank: 1), 366-411
2019: 170 games (Rank: 10), 80-90
2020: 139 games (Rank: 1), 67-72
2021: 52 games (Rank: 1), 31-21
= = =
2018 was notable because not only was Cammy in so many games, she made an appearance in 19 championship series, going 3-16.
2021 is much different. She’s already made 4 championship series appearances, winning 3. At this rate, she’s going to run away with the usage title in the same manner as 2018.
I’m here to say that it is a likely scenario, looking at the numbers and spitballing.
Three main reasons:
We’re getting mostly good Cammy users: OK, really if you make a Top 8 in the top Street Fighter league in the world, that’s saying something, but this crop of Cammy users seem to be different. This page has a list of who has used Cammy in a CPT Top 8 match this season (you can try it out yourself to see other characters or years). Three players have a losing record and of the three, two are 0-1 and the other got to a grand final. Dial it back a year, and it’s top heavy, three players carried the freight. Dial it back another year, it’s the same. What we’re seeing in 2021 is a byproduct of …
Fewer events: Sounds simple. The 2019 season had more than 50 events. The 2020 season had 19 events. 2021 is 31 scheduled events with the 32nd still to be announced. I take it as there are fewer spots for the second-tier Cammy players to squeeze in. Players can’t schedule-dodge with multiple events in the same weekend, so they’re all fighting each other and the better Cammy users are prevailing, and yes I understand this case can be made for any character.
More characters emerging in the Top 8: As of today, 36 characters have been used in a CPT Top 8 game/match. Ryu, who was on a milk carton for nearly 5 years, has been used by 6 different players. Gill wasn’t used in the 2020 season but has found 2 users take him to the Top 8 in 2021. The pool of games is getting divided up even more.
With those three factors, I’m believing Cammy is the favorite to win the usage title yet again.
Here’s the obvious change if she were to win it: it’s likely this usage title will come with a winning record.
As the season goes on, game wins add up. Right now, 10 games over .500 does not seem like a lot, but then you have to put it in this context: a match loss is 3 games, so it really takes a sweep for a record to be truly impacted.
Cammy has been swept three times this year in a Top 8 match. One of those 3-0 wins was a Cammy mirror, NL defeating Gamerbee on May 16. So those 3 games, in a way, cancel each other out in the standings and it wouldn’t send Cammy to a losing record.
If there are fewer events and fewer Cammy players, that means fewer chances to knock Cammy off the board. A Cammy player starting in winners in the next event is only guaranteed 6 games. As the Cammy player charges through the bracket, the wins add up fast and the games get put in the bin toward the usage title, it’s a win-win for her.
= = =
What the rest of the field has going for it is there is more than half of the season remaining. Yes, I say that even though I mentioned one of the qualifiers being that more of the rest of the field is being used this year.
Guile, a couple of seasons past, had the usage title and a winning record early only to be passed by Cammy and Karin who were going 85 mph in a 25 mph zone. Guile finished close to a winning record but was an afterthought for the usage title.
Rashid is second in usage at 32-27. There might not be enough Rashids the rest of the way to put him over the top. The most he’s ever had in a year was 11 in both 2017 and 2019, and there were only 5 in 2020. His 2021 full-year results might be front-loaded.
Balrog/Boxer is 21-15. In 2019, he was 46-55, not even sniffing the top of the ladder. Again, another case of the 2021 results being front-loaded.
Urien is 21-27 with only 5 players having used him so far. Last year, 15 players used him in a Top 8 match but still finished third in the usage total.
There is a path for one of these characters to start making a run toward the top. I just don’t believe it’s happening against this version of the Cammy army.