A sim and the 10 vs. 10 Part 2: Europe

Strong players and strong projections

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Part 1 of this two-part series is about the idea of the proposed 10 vs. 10 battle featuring Team North America and Team Europe.

In the previous post, I explained the process to create a computer simulation of what we could expect when Team North America goes up against the characters expected to be used in the 10 vs. 10 matchup.

The concept was to use the player-vs-character setting because the rosters could change from now to whenever this match takes place.

I’m not going to repeat the whole explanation of how I created the calculations for the simulation, go read Part 1 where it’s there as well as my thoughts on how North America fares. In today’s post, I’m going to look at how Europe fares.


The projections for Team Europe

The characters Europe are expected to face are Akuma, Birdie, Balrog/Boxer, G, Ibuki, Karin, Kolin, Laura, Poison, Rashid, Sakura and Seth. I thought about adding Cammy but opted not to.

The proposed players to be on the team are Angry Bird, Big Bird, Hurricane, Infexious, Luffy, Monsieur Crimson, Phenom, Problem X, Rikemansbarnet, Takamura and The4Philzz.

The weird thing looking at Team Europe’s individual projections is that I wasn’t thinking about Team Europe. Rather, I was thinking about Team North America.

For starters, I listed the characters Team Europe would likely face in this matchup. Balrog/Boxer could be one of two players. Sakura could be one of two players. Karin could be one of three players.

Where Team Europe has unique identities, Team North America could double up on characters. That could go two polarizing ways. On one end, it limits the placings of certain players in the lineup — there’s no way two Boxer players are going back-to-back and then the ideal matchup gets lost in the shuffle. If two Karins go back to back, the second might be tempted to go away from her and use another character that ends up backfiring.

On the other end, what one player might not be able to crack, the other one will because they’ll do the adjustment. The team could

Similar to what I did when looking at Team North America, I have to start the Team Europe analysis with the player whose lines tilt to the right. That is The4Philzz. But this is not to say he should not be on the team — he’s the best Falke in the world and would be the ultimate wild card in this 10 vs. 10.

The key is to find the line where he can do damage. Birdie seems to be the obvious choice, but everyone has that line. Do you give it to him? That means The4Philzz faces MenaRD. The4Philzz’s odds against a Birdie are 49.2 percent, the most likely outcome of the 10 results is a 5-3 score. If Team Europe believes that works, then you give him that matchup.

The line that might work is against Balrog/Boxer. The4Philzz is projected at 44.9 percent to win, the most likely outcome being 5-4 (13.2 percent) if he were to win. A 5-3 and 5-4 loss are 14 percent projections. Do you give him Smug or Brian F and play for that win? It’s a tough call, and that decision might be the one that decides the whole outcome.

The line for Rikemansbarnet is an interesting one. The lines show mostly coin flip results. It seems that he is primed to be the starter, as Birdie would be the line to target.

Team Europe’s individual projections are solid. Their approach to this 10 vs. 10 might be to find the starter, the second in line and then react to what Team North America does because specific characters are tied to multiple players. Team North America’s approach has to be different, where they specifically target a certain player-vs.-character matchup to free things up for Punk and Idom later in the series.

Both strategies can work, but it does lean toward Team Europe. I won’t have that sentiment I had initially when I saw the lineups the first time. I do believe that Team Europe will have more flexibility with their lineup to where they can eventually bring in Problem X and one of the birds to be the closers.

One of the projections that stood out was Takamura. He’s a solid favorite in every projected matchup. If the Problem Birds are the potential closers, Takamura can be that guy that comes in and creates the early separation between the two teams.

Does Team Europe give Takamura the Balrog/Boxer matchup? If they go by the lines, then that makes sense, he’s at 66.2 percent odds to win, 34.8 percent to allow two or fewer games. Have him eliminate Smug or Brian F early and save the juice for the next opponent.

A deeper look into Takamura’s potential outcomes reveals some promising splits. He’s at 66.3 percent odds to defeat Laura, with better percentages than in the Balrog/Boxer matchup to end the series quickly. Have Takamura go early to force Team North America to bring in Idom if Takamura gets rolling? This is partly what I’m talking about when I mention Team Europe’s flexibility.

There’s always that one player in a team match that is the surprise standout, and Takamura could be it.